Game Eleven: #7 Baylor 73, UTEP 58

"Everything I worried about happening happened.

It hurts even to write about this game. I should have known that it was going to be a crappy game when Toya (LaToya Lloyd) went down in the first 20 seconds. She twisted her left ankle and went off the court limping. That made it all the tougher.

So that left the rest of us to fight off Baylor. We were able to hang with Baylor - for nine points - then Baylor hit the accelerator and before we knew it, we were down by 11. They just knocked us off the boards like a windshield wiper hitting a fly. Without the boards, we had to shoot and Coach Ballard tried to keep Baylor away from me - my job was to kick it out to the guards. It didn't matter because I couldn't play forward, I still can't play forward, I feel like a fool at the post. Those Baylor girls play to your back and they put their elbows right into you when you back up into them.

I got frustrated. I fouled. I spent most of my time on the bench. Baylor kept taking swipes at me. I scored seven points. Seven god-damned points. It was a nightmare. #34 (Williamette Moss) didn't score in the entire game. We just had no power to score from close range at all.

First Baylor was up by 11. Then by 15. Then at one time they were up by like, what, 24 in the second half? I think they put it on cruise control, but even on cruise control, they were tough. There were four fouls on me and I came in the second half because we were desperate. Ten second laters, I had my fifth foul. Coach Ballard said a swear.

We walked off that court as whipped as a team can get, and in front of friggin New Mexico, which suddenly turned into the biggest Baylor fans in the world. I am beginning to hate the state of New Mexico with a passion. I still cried at the end of this game, but not as much. Those fans just got to me."

--Brenda Dean



Egad. This looked pretty much like a #4 vs. #12 game in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. These games go like this:

a) #12 is coming off being the best team in their conference. They think they can hang.
b) They hang for about five minutes.
c) Reality sets in.

For UTEP, reality sat in and Brenda Dean was particulary ineffective. Without LaToya Lloyd, this left UTEP to rely on its reserves. The problem was that Baylor's starters were just so good that alone they scored 65 points against the entire UTEP lineup. (As you can tell, Baylor's bench players only score eight points.) Three Baylor players didn't even shoot.

To add insult to injury, Letell Hanson also was injured near the end of the game. Nothing serious: both Lloyd and Hanson will be out one game, and Idaho State will hopefully not be a formidable opponent.

It's very hard writing so long after the fact - the game is just a vague fuzzy memory. I can at least tell you how the ratings have changed for UTEP. It hurts UTEP that they lost the game but it helps that they've played such a tough team.

AP Poll RPI: 53
Coaches Poll RPI: 41

UTEP actually moves up in the Coaches Poll RPI, which puts more weight on strength of schedule. They actually move up one spot in the poll - whereas in the AP Poll RPI, UTEP drops five places.

In the alternate game, I have New Mexico defeating Idaho State. This sets up New Mexico vs. Baylor as the headline game (which I won't be playing) and puts UTEP vs. Idaho State in the consolation game.

An Update

Just a word. I have not forgotten about my Statis Pro Basketball project. As a matter of fact, I've been regretting not having the chance to play. "Put me in, coach!"

Last week, I was in New York for a little while. This weekend, I'm in Kentucky. Work has been very very busy. But trust me, we will see UTEP play Idaho State. My desk is still dedicated to the game.

Maybe I'll have to take some desk pictures.

Neutral Courts

Up next for UTEP - a game against #7 Baylor on a neutral court, this time in New Mexico.

First, Baylor's card set.



As you can see, Baylor's impressive stats look even more impressive when you multiply them by that 1.203 factor which signifies the strength of the Big Twelve vs. Conference USA. My rule of thumb is that anyone who is shooting in the "fives" - whose field goal range on the card starts with 11 and ends up somewhere in the 50s - is a force to be reckoned with. There are two or three good players on Baylor who have that kind of shooting ability. Add to it the fact that that 1.203 factor boosts rebounding as well and Baylor is a team well deserving of its Top Ten ranking.

The only hope for UTEP is that Baylor's shooters do poorly and they get a few forced rests to take them off the courts. Other than that, it might be a long game for UTEP. On the other hand, I said the same thing about Missouri and UTEP had no trouble with Mizzou.

(* * *)

The next thing for me to figure out was "how do you handle a neutral court"?

My first notion was to simply remove Team Index points as a factor. This way, neither team could call on its special and mysterious powers to ignore forced rests and fouls, to grab rebounds, etc.

However, if you look at the Baylor Card set above, Baylor has a Home Court Index of "9" and a Road Index of "7". UTEP has a Home Court Index of "4" and a Road Index of "-1".

The 1993 Statis Pro Basketball Rules introduced the idea of Home and Road indices. One subtracts the smaller of the numbers from the larger and the team putting pu the bigger number gets the index points.

If the game were at Baylor, Baylor would have 9 (Baylor Home Index) - (-1) (UTEP Road Index) for 10 Team Index Points.
If the game were at UTEP, Baylor would have 7 (Baylor Road Index) - 4 (UTEP Home Index) for 3 Team Index Points. Even though UTEP still keeps its home court advantage in setting assignments, Baylor gets 3 points.

Since Baylor is still dynamite against UTEP either at home or on the road, it's unfair for Baylor to be deprived of their Index Points. Hell, they have Index Points even when they play in the hostile environment of UTEP.

The solution: for neutral courts one splits the difference of Index Points. What is between Baylor +3 points and Baylor +10 points? That would be Baylor +6 Team Index points, rounding down (3 + 10)/2. Baylor gets 6 Team Index Points on a theoretically neutral court. If it were the difference between, say, Baylor +10 at home and UTEP +4 at home, Baylor would get (10 - 4)/2 = 3 Team Index points on a neutral court.

There is one more advantage home teams get in the game: the visiting team is forced to put its player cards on the table first, and then the home team decides how it wants to position its players against the visiting team's players. On neutral courts, each team will swap duties. For the first half of the game, one team gets to choose the most advantageous matchups and during the second half, the other team chooses.

More on the outcome of this game later.